Caulfield Racing Tips – Wed Sept 29
We will be at Caulfield this Sunday.
Track: Good 4. Rail: Out 6m entire circuit.
Best Bet: Race 7 – HOMESMAN
Race 1: Fillies and Mares Handicap BM84 1800m
OCEANEX (1) has placed at both runs since returning from the paddock, she ran on hard from the back resuming before sitting wide on the speed at Bendigo without cover and was braver in defeat. All of her wins have been third-up and deeper into the prep so she should be fully would up here.
SOMETHING SILVER (4) should be making her own luck up on the speed, she has had 5 weeks between runs and should be ready to go. Olly off and Kah on is ok for me when up on the speed. ANNARBOR (6) has won three on the bounce, she was very easy in the betting last start but defied the drift and sat up outside the speed and was too strong. This is harder but she is racing well. CAMELLE (7) drops in grade and was outclassed last time, he will be giving them a start, look for her late.
Race 2: Mares BM90 Handicap 1100m
ALGADON MISS (6) has won her last couple, she sat up on the speed and without cover when making the run to be too strong at the Valley. Previously at Caulfield she was further back and ran over the top so she has shown her versatility. She will need a little luck off the inside when the runs come but should get the economical run.
PROPHET’S THUMB (7) drops a stack in class and was close up behind much better sprinters than these when resuming, fresh is her go though, and may start under the odds here second-up. If she brings that form from last start, she should be winning this. VICTORY KINGDOM (9) lost all chance last start when she reared at the start and lost too much ground, she over-raced and was again held-up late. A total disaster all around, forget she went around there.
WORKING FORM HOME (3) will be working across early and if she finds the rail first, will give a sight.
Race 3: Handicap 1700m
QAFILA (4) wasn’t suite din the much harder WFA Makybe Diva last time, she was on the speed without cover and well beaten. The start prior he was ridden quietly here at the track, settled back and ran on hard late to narrowly miss.
DR DRILL (8) is a dual-acceptor for here and for Sydney on Saturday, if he comes here, he will be up on the speed for a long way. He has been very consistent barring a poor heavy track run at Flemington two back. SAVVY OAK (10) never got into it in a harder race last time, the concussion plates come off and the big field and extra trip should suit. ROYAL ACE (11) raced closer to the speed last time and stuck on well, not sure he maps the same here from the wide draw.
Race 4: Handicap 1400m
ROX THE CASTLE (2) is flying and if it is favourable to be up on the speed over the first few races, load up. He led them up at Sandown and was strong through the line at 78 grade, then went to Flemington at Listed level in the Sofitel and sat outside the speed and although favoured by being up on the speed, was strong late. The inside looks favourable as he usually jumps well.
MAHAMEDEIS (1) was a real winner earlier in his career, he drops sharply in grade here after placing behind Homesman last time, who is favourite later in the day to win again at WFA G1 level. Drawn well, hopefully he can settle closer and be hard on the back of the top pick and likely leader. WAGING WAR (4) is very consistent but will be giving the top pick a start, HEPTAGON (8) comes through the same race as Rox The Castle and was ok through the line, again he will get back and needs everything to go right.
Race 5: Caulfield Guineas Prelude 3YO Colts and Geldings 1400m
DALASAN (3) silenced a lot of doubters with a crushing win at Flemington up the straight, Raquel Clark didn’t panic when the leader got away and he drove hard late to win by almost a length. The extra trip looks to suit, he has won four of five and drawn perfectly. He wins again.
SUPER SETH (4) had his chance that day but I like the fact he is drawn very wide here, will get out to a huge place price and will benefit from getting out to the middle of the track. EXPRESS PASS (12) was very green in that race behind the top pick and still has a bit to learn. He gets the winkers for the first time, look for him late. ALLIGATOR BLOOD (5) is undefeated after beating up on the Queenslanders, this is harder though.
Race 6: Thousand Guineas Prelude 3YO Fillies 1400m
Godolphin has the top four saddlecloths here and all look to have some chance, but I going wide of them until they start to hit some form. MISSILE MANTRA (6) won her first two starts, resumed here and had no luck before flashing late for the best closing sectionals of the race, then went to Flemington where again she had no luck and was held-up till very late and arguably should have won.
LYRE (1) is one of the blue army, not trained by James Cummings but by Anthony Freedman. He ran on well resuming and the was ok last time here but did have a sift run. I like the fact he has drawn wide and can wind-up here. FLIT (3) was good resuming against the pattern of the day and ran on hard, she looks the one for the GF in a couple of weeks. TENLEY (2), another Godolphin runner, next best.
Race 7: Underwood Stakes WFA 1800m
Certainly not a classic WFA event this one, HOMESMAN (8) goes on top for the Lloyd WIlliams team. The Caulfield Cup runner-up was brilliant at eh Valley and totally dominant after sitting up on the speed. He will g o forward again, loves racing here and looks a steal at black figures when Hartnell is second fave?
GATTING (7) beat home Mystic Journey a fortnight ago after sitting up on the speed, the WA visitor was 100/1 that day and produced a brilliant and tough performance, but the SP profile says no. HUMIDOR (4) hasn’t done much in two runs back but the blinkers off again may spark him, HARTNELL (1) next best. He is still racing well but he is just too one-paced at this stage of his career.
Race 8: Testa Ross Stakes Handicap 1200m
ZOUSTYLE (9) was poor in his first crack at the bigtime in the Concorde Stakes. He wasn’t suited the way the track was, still disappointing but why are we getting 3/1 here and he was only 5/1 against the Everest superstars? Speedy, well drawn and Prebble going on, why again are we getting such a good price! He has only tasted defeat once in his career, I expect we will eb writing the same thing next start.
None in my opinion. RENEWAL (12) is resuming and flies fresh, this is harder than what he had been racing last prep but if they go hard early, look for him late. BRAVE SONG (2) is resuming from the horrible draw, he was good through the Brissy winter but will be giving them a big start from the horrible draw. SPECIAL REWARD (15) won all four starts in WA last prep but faces a huge rise in class here. HE will be up on the speed, I can’t see her starting single figures though.
Race 9: BM78 Handicap 1400m
AIGUILETTE (11) is one that is not a dual-acceptor, happy to be with him. The SA visitor has won both runs this prep, resuming from mid-field and sprinted quickly to win comfortably, then once again well ridden back on the rail before hitting the front late. Love the jockey change with Kah going on, this is harder but he looks very progressive.
TARWIN (7) was held-up before hitting the line hard when resuming behind a winner that was on the speed all the way. He is a winner at his only other second-up run, just a worry how much start he will be giving away. GRINZINGER STAR (6) is resuming and may want further but if he gets the right cart into it he may be able to show up fresh. USAIN BOWLER (1) is a chance if he comes here.