Caulfield Racing Tips – Sat Oct 19
We will be at Caulfield this Saturday.
Track: Good 4. Rail: True.
Best Bet: Race 7 – GOD OF THUNDER.
Race 1: Grand Handicap BM80 1700m
GRINZINGER STAR (1) just found them too slick first-up behind the ultra-impressive Harbour Views. He was racing well at the beginning of his last prep and has a good record second-up, two of his three wins have come here at the track. He will be giving them a start but running on hard.
STARCASTER (3) is an interesting runner having his first Australian start for the Freedman yard, he has trialed ok and was a winner when last at the races almost 6 months ago in the UK. Watch the betting with him. ARCTIC SHOCK (7) is racing well this time in and gets a soft run off the inside draw, she will find this harder though than last time against the girls when beaten as favourite. SO YOU SWING (8) was the winner of that race and beat her home last time but does meet her worse at the weights here.
Race 2: 3YO Fillies Plate Set Weights and Penalties 1400m
READY SET SAIL (1) dead-heated to win her maiden up the straight in the Breeders back in March, she was then sent to the paddock. She resumed in a harder race last time at the Valley where she never really got hot from back in the field. Drawn well, she will be giving them a start agi, look for her late.
PRETTY BRAZEN (3) was ridden off the speed last time and showed a devastating turn-of-foot to win by more than 4 lengths in an easier race at Bendigo. She will get back from the draw again but seemed to relish being ridden cold. STAY GOLD (5) is very speedy, gets the winkers off here. She was backed as if there was no settling last time at Ballarat in a Class 1, led and was run down late. She will most likely assume that role again. NEED NEW FRIENDS (10) was brave in defeat at her first go out of maiden grade, she sat wide on the speed and stuck on well to be beaten a couple of lengths.
Race 3: Gothic Stakes Colts Geldings and Entires Set Weights and Penalties 1400m
HILO (3) was a scratching from Wednesday for this, he was really good winning his maiden two back then was a little plain when not really getting into the race in the Caulfield Guineas Prelude. He will go forward and be on the speed, the team obviously saw this as the better option. The Blue team is back and flying at the moment.
HEIRBORN (1) is undefeated after two starts back in July and August, he has been sent to the paddock and resumes today. His maiden win was a gap job and start two was a closer affair but he had a much tougher run. He has trialed well, looks to have a future. TRITON RISING (7) wasn’t beaten far at HQ last time, he was held-up early in the straight and raced tight late, he definitely should have finished closer. ASTRAEUS (6) has been good at his last three, this is harder though.
Race 4: Caulfield Classic 3YO Set Weights 2000m
MIAMI BOUND (9) has not missed a place in her 4-start career, she won two in a row to start this campaign before a brave effort in the Edward Manifold last time. She had a good run in transit and took over but just ran out of condition late. She draws to get that similar soft run in transit and Olly sticks with the ride.
THOUGHT OF THAT (7) is a last start maiden winner, some would say this is too big a step up in class but he did win that by 8 lengths! He was very impressive, just don’t know what took him 6 starts to produce it? He will go forward early. WARNING (3) won the Super Impose impressively last start after being held-up at a vital time, he then balance up and charged home for a soft win. Not easy to get your maiden win at Listed level. HUNTLY CASTLE (2) will hit the line well enough but hard to see him turning the tables on Warning after what we saw last start.
Race 5: Alinghi Stakes Fillies and Mares Set Weights and Penalties 1100m
PROPHET’S THUMB (4) resumed at the Valley two starts back and attacked the line well, she then came here to Caulfield last time at BM9o grade and was way too good for her opposition storming home from the back. That was her first look at the track, look for her late.
SOOTHING (3) has had her runs spaced this prep, she has raced here at Caulfield, Sydney and most recently Adelaide at her last three in a 14-week time span. Her run to win in SA last time was breathtaking, she showed an outstanding turn-of-foot. HUMMA HUMMA (2) is another last start winner fresh, she came from further back but I expect them to ride her positively from the wide gate early. DEMERARA (1) had every chance resuming, she also has a good record second-up and maps to be better than mid-field.
Race 6: Ethereal Stakes 3YO Fillies Set Weights and Penalties 2000m
CELESTIAL FALLS (2), like many of these, is getting out to the 2000m for the first time. She was last seen in the Oaks trial where she led all the way as a heavily backed favourite and although peaking late, was comfortable through the line. Expect the same here.
VEGAS JEWEL (7) is undefeated after two starts, she was good on debut but her win at her first start out of maiden grade was most impressive. She gave them a start and ran on strongly, the step up in trip looks to suit. SNAPDANCER (4) jumps from the 1400m to the 10 furlongs after being one paced in the Thousand Guineas trial. GAMAY (8) was brave in defeat behind the top pick after a wide trip on the speed last time, she shouldn’t be far away with a more economical run here.
Race 7: Caulfield Sprint Handicap 1000m
GOD OF THUNDER (9) is racing so consistently this prep. He was a real eye-catcher at the Valley three weeks ago when flashing home late and looks better suited on the bigger track here. Hopefully after three straight meetings here the run on horses are not disadvantaged.
MISS LEONIDAS (4) was huge in defeat in a much harder racer last time, she had to sit outside Nature Strip and was still kicking at the back-end. She should kick up early and try to lead all the way. TACTICAL ADVANTAGE (3) has the blinkers back on after an ok run from the back last time and has a decent record second-up. CRYSTAL DREAMER (1) out-performed his SP when winning fresh here in the Heath, he does have a good record second-up also but doesn’t look as well suited at the handicap conditions.
Race 8: Moonga Stakes 4YO and Up Set Weights and Penalties 1400m
ROYAL MEETING (2) is the most interesting runner anywhere in the country this weekend, he is a Godolphin horse trained by Saeed Bin Suroor that is undefeated after two starts. He won on debut over 1400m and then won a Group One at start two over the 7 furlongs. That was almost a year ago, would love to see some money for him.
LAND OF PLENTY (1) is resuming and doesn’t have a great record fresh but he has been given three trials leading into this. He was following around the likes of Winx and Brutal at his last two in Sydney, if he is ready to go, he will run on hard. STREETS OF AVALON (4) always runs an honest race and will go forward to be on the speed for a long way, MANOLO BLAHNIQ (7) gets a soft run off the inside draw, he was brave in defeat after racing wide last time.
Race 9: Caulfield Cup Handicap 2400m
Willing to forgive MR QUICKIE (12) his flat second-up run last start. His late splits were fantastic fresh after being held-up, he then never go into the race in the Turnbull and was very flat. Speed should be on here, drops down to 53kg and should be charging late.
Obviously there are a stack of unknowns from the overseas contingent. MUSTAJEER (4) won the Ebor Handicap at York last start and looks the best of them, is he ready to go for this though?? An interview with new trainer Kris lees suggested that he is. He is a class stayer that’s for sure. FINCHE (6) was really good in the Turnbull, just a bit worried that this is not his goal and is being aimed at the first Tuesday in November. He has the horror draw and will go forward, he will keep grinding away. If there is any rain around, I would be having a ticket on ANGEL OF TRUTH (9). He has only been fain Sydney early this prep but he won the Derby and Tulloch Stakes on wet tracks in the Autumn, he will be up on the sp[eed for a long way if that rain comes.
Race 10: Tristarc Stakes Mares Set Weights and Penalties 1400m
NAANTALI (10) was outclassed in the Gilgai resuming but it was interesting to note there was money for her at big odds, so she must have been showing something at home. She maps well here and this is easier.
POHUTUKAWA (7) ran on well at Flemington after having the perfect run and was aided the way the track was playing. This is no harder but she doesn’t map to get the soft run in transit, maybe she will benefit getting to the outside? SAVATIANO (6) has the poor draw and comes through that same race, she will use her tactical speed to go forward and be on the speed. She has a terrific record second-up, not finishing worse than fifth in five attempts. ANGELIC RULER (11) pulled up lame last time after making ground against the tempo, she has placed at both runs back and assuming she has pulled through that ok, will hit the line hard here.