Caulfield Racing Tips – Sat Oct 12
We will be at Caulfield this Saturday.
Track: Good 4. Rail: True.
Best Bet: Race 6 – FLIT
Race 1: Inglis Debutant Stakes 2YO Set Weights 1000m
Not much use previewing this on such a good days racing when we have 9 babies facing the starter for the first time. If you must have an interest, look for any money for
T HE BIG EASY (3), QUEEN OF ROCKS (9), ROCK OF KRYPTONITE (1) and EUPHORIC SUMMER (6).
Race 2: Weekend Hussler Stakes Handicap 1400m
WAGING WAR (7) was game in defeat here last time in a form line we can match-up. He was forced to sit wide without cover and didn’t shirk the task late, only beaten a length and a half. He has been up for an eternity but still racing well, he maps to get a much more economical run today.
ROX THE CASTLE (3) beat him home last tie after leading all the way. He will be carving over early, you know what you will get with him, he is either going to lead or sitting parked outside the leader. RENEWAL (2) won the Testa Rossa here resuming, he charged home from a mile back to get up in the last stride. He doesn’t have a great record second-up like he does fresh, happy to be against him unless he gets to the $5 mark.
CHIEF IRONSIDE (4) is an interesting runner making his Australian debut, he probably needs the run/further.
Race 3: Thoroughbred Club Stakes 3YO Fillies Set Weights and Penalties 1200m
LOVING GABY (2) was beaten favourite in both the Sires and the Champagne at G1 level at the back end of her 2YO campaign, she resumed at the Valley two weeks ago and ran on hard from the back to score. She looks to have come back well and has the versatility aspect as well, she was a winner here at the track on debut in February.
ATHIRI (5) doesn’t win out of turn, she was most unlucky at Flemington last time when held-up until the clocktower. She will get back from the draw and hit the line hard. CALIFORNIA ZIMBOL (6) steps up in class, her win resuming at Canterbury was brilliant up on the speed. She should go forward but am happy to lay her having her first look at both the Melbourne way of going and more importantly, here at Caulfield. DON’TELLTHEBOSS (8) hasn’t done much wrong and was good behind the top pick last time.
Race 4: Northwood Plume Stakes Mares Set Weights and Penalties 1200m
MANICURE (1) goes on top in what is a very open race and can expect each-way odds the field. He was beautifully ridden here at the track when resuming three weeks ago, came wide just off the pace before pouncing for a soft win. She will get back but if she gets the right cart into it she looks a great each-way bet to nothing.
MERYL (2) has been taking on some of the best sprinters in the land and has not been far away at her last two, this is a drop in class and she should be making her own luck up on the speed.
DEMERARA (5) was ok fresh but had every chance, she has a good record second-up also and will be better for that run. GIFT OF POWER (6) is an interesting runner, an ex-Kiwi now with the Freedman yard. She was ok at her Australian debut across the border, she is a real winner and if there is any more sting out of the ground, it will see her go to top pick.
Race 5: Herbert Power Stakes Quality 2400m
PRINCE OF ARRAN (1) hasn’t done a lot since returning to the UK, but his form in two start shere this time last year was exceptional. He won the Lexus fresh in Oz then ran a bolter in the Melbourne Cup, obviously his aim again this year. He clearly races well here and has only had the 5 weeks break.
RAHEEN HOUSE (2) is a 25/1 chance to win the Cup, this is the first time we have seen him in Oz but he comes here with strong formlines in the UK. It’s been a while since he has won but this is probably the weakest field he has met in that period. STEEL PRINCE (3) is already guaranteed a start in the big one on the first Tuesday of November (it will stay there too no matter what Vlandys has to say), he was doing his best late last time and should be getting fitter.
TRUE SELF (6) comes through that same Ebor Handicap as the favourite, and was only beaten 3 lengths. Hard to know where these internationals are at!
Race 6: Thousand Guineas 3YO Fillies Set Weights 1600m
FLIT (3) looks the best of the string Godolphin presence in the fillies feature, she was impressive when resuming in Sydney over the shorter trip behind Libertini then was a tragedy beaten in the prelude when held-up most of the straight. She is classy and this is her race to lose.
LYRE (1) is the stablemate, she got further back last time and worked home well, expect her to settle closer as she did in the previous run here at the track. MISSILE MANTRA (7) was unlucky two back at Flemington and then charged home from a mile back in the Prelude. Look for her late as she gets the blinkers on for the first time. EMERALDS (10) outperformed her SP when beaten under 3L by Funstar and Probabeel in the Tea Rose, stepping up to the mile I expect her to be weighing in.
Race 7: Caulfield Stakes WFA 2000m
I’m sticking with HOMESMAN (7) through the Spring, his win fresh was outstanding. He backed it up when beaten as favourite last time, sat wide no cover, made a long run and was still strong through the line. I think Melham will settle him closer and take the luck out of it today.
Obviously AVILIUS (5) will be the one to watch, he has won both starts here at the track but he will be giving our tip a start. He can produce some brilliant sectionals but hopefully they get truckin’ a long way from home taking away his advantage of having that brilliance. GATTING (8) and BLACK HEART BART (1) are the two most recent WFA Group One winners, both were at cricket score odds but you wouldn’t deny them being a good place chance here. Basically, I think if they turn it into a sit-sprint where Avilius is close enough, he will be too quick, hopefully Homesman makes it a true staying test.
Race 8: Caulfield Guineas 3YO Set Weights 1600m
Despite the putrid draw, I am sticking with DALASAN (2). He was brilliant up the straight two back and was brave in defeat in the Prelude. It has been well publicised that Hughie replaces the regular jock, the trainer has stood firm and they will be positive from the wide gate. He will just be too good but will be a drifter in the market.
ALLIGATOR BLOOD (3) is undefeated after five starts and did get the better of the top pick in the Prelude, he has good tactical speed, he will roll forward also and has proven that the Qld form stands up. KUBRICK (4) looked to have every chance in the Golden Rose but will appreciate the easier line-up he faces today and getting out to the mile. SUPER SETH (5) didn’t recover after copping a check early on last time, he should settle closer here and be strong late.
Race 9: Toorak Handicap 1600m
Where to look here with the capacity field over the mile. What a great betting race this should be. NIGHT’S WATCH (5) needs everything to go right in his races but there has been a lot to like about his two runs back. Resuming here, he ran into a couple of roadblocks in the straight and arguably should have almost won the race, he then went to HQ and made some ground in the WFA G1 back near the inside. This is easier, back to a handicap suits and JMac goes on.
Most of them. Cracking race. AMPHITRITE (10) was a real eye-catcher late resuming then failed to run against the pattern last time. She gets the blinkers for the first time and hopefully settles closer, she has a big motor. AGE OF CHIVALRY (11) is flying this prep, he has won two of his last three and will be up on the speed for a long way. Look for him trying to cross from the wide gate early. WIDGEE TURF (4) loves it here at the Heath, he ran on well from the back last time when not suited.
Race 10: Schillaci Stakes WFA 1100m
TREKKING (2) was resuming at the Valley in the Moir, he got well back and hit the line well in a race dominated by those on the speed. He has a good record second-up, this is easier and draws to get the perfect stalking run.
Everything needs to go right for BONS AWAY (8) with his racing pattern, he was officially fifth in the Moir but beaten only half a length. He will be flashing home again late. BOOKER (9) hasn’t had much go right in his two runs back, hopefully he can get to the outside here and make ground. You know what you will get with BALL OF MUSCLE (1), he should jump and run. He looks the leader and races well here at the track. Forget he went around last time, who knows what Glyn Schofield was thinking, Willow goes on!