Caulfield Racing Tips – Sat Sept 21
We will be at Caulfield this Saturday.
Track: Good 4. Rail: Out 3m entire circuit.
Best Bet: Race 7 – BEGOOD TOYA MOTHER
Race 1: BM78 Handicap 1800m
A small field but it wouldn’t surprise to see any of the 7 return to the winner’s stall. SHARED AMBITION (2) is an interesting runner having his Australian debut for the Waller yard, he won 2 of 3 in Ireland before being sent here. Watch the betting with him for any confidence. FIRSTCLASS DREAMER (6) looks a major player if he races here, HEIR TO THE THRONE (4) has been up for an eternity but is still racing well, this is about his level. He was good at the Valley last time after sitting wide without cover, he didn’t drop off like he was entitled to do. BUT IT’S TRUE (5) comes through that same race at the Valley and was held-up at a vital stage, hit the line hard and again was not given a lot of room late.
Race 2: Super VOBIS 3YO Handicap 1600m
THE LIFELINE (2) is a Waterhouse/Bott runner that has the speed to lead, I like on-pace runners here at the 1400m if they can give a kick at the top of the straight. He did exactly that at Sandown last time when leading all the way, this is harder though but must be respected in another open race.
HUNTLY CASTLE (1) is probably the best horse in the race going forward but is resuming here at the Mile and may need the run. He has great closing speed, his two wins when running on from the back before going to the paddock were fantastic. LONG JACK (3) was backed as if there was no settling to win his maiden last start, he won with authority sitting three-wide no cover throughout. Happy to take him on though if he is favourite or near the top of the market rising in grade and off the synthetic track onto the turf. SKIDDAW (4) next best but hasn’t really looked likely winning a race out of maiden grade.
Race 3: 3YO Set Weights and Penalties 1000m
I AM IMMORTAL (1) won his first two starts, he then went to the Blue Diamond and tried to lead all the way but tired late. He is very speedy but has been off the track a long time, I would like to see some support for him. If its there, he could just be too quick?
SARTORIAL SPLENDOUR (4) is resuming and has tactical speed, drawn in close he might try and kick up and hold the fave early? His best chance looks to be to take the sit though, and peel off his back in the straight. CARDIFF (3) was a good winner at Hawkesbury last time, he was forced to sit off the track without cover and was too strong. Not sure how to line that form up here though. GARNER (5) is a last start winner in SA, it was actually his maiden win but he did it at 66 grade, only better than average horses can do that. He is likely to be giving them a start but can run on hard if those two above attack each other.
Race 4: Mares BM90 Handicap 1400m
HAUT BRION HER (3) won three in a row in Sydney before heading south, she was beaten at the Valley by Tofane (who is going around in the next) on her merits after sitting on the speed. She will look to work across to that spot again and control the tempo.
MIRETTE (1) has been good at two runs back, both in SA, she maps beautifully to get the cold sit on the leaders. MYSTERY LOVE (6) resumed in the same race as the top pick, she hit the line ok and will benefit going out in trip, but she really needs to improve to be running past the top pick. SO TAKEN (8) is the unknown coming down from Sydney, she ran on hard last time and should be rock hard fit here third-up..
Race 5: How Now Stakes Mares Set Weights and Penalties 1200m
PIPPIE (5) is likely to start one of the shortest faves of the day. Her last two runs have been good, but she has been suited the way the track has been playing. I am not completely sold on her yet, but she should be leading for a long way. If she lands on the bunny and can control as she did last time, not too quick but not too slow, she should kick well enough late.
DAWN DAWN (10) won at 78 grade last start and had to do it the tradesman’s way sitting wide without cover. She draws perfectly to get the sit on Pippie in the run, hopefully they kick up early and take that spot and she looks a great place bet. ANGELIC RULER (6) has trialed ok in the west and gets the blinkers off, she has shown that she can sprint well fresh but will need the speed on early. TOFANE (11) was good last start winning at the Valley, she beat Haut Brion Her on her merits who goes around in the previous, see how that form holds up.
Race 6: Quality 2000m
I usually like to stay away from last start Hawkesbury form, but the run of SUPERNOVA (15) was enormous. He resumed there I the Rowley Mile, was last in the run before coming very wide and running on hard in the best overall sectionals. A little tricky off the inside gate but should get a soft run.
NEUFBOSC (2) is an import who hasn’t been suited by his first two Australian runs. Out in trip, he raced in the Arc before coming here, he obviously has class. STEEL PRINCE (4) is on a Melb Cup path after already qualified, with this not being the main goal he maty not be wound up but this is not a race of great depth. (5) SILKANDARABAD also wasn’t suited in the Feehan, a harder race than this, but found the line well. Fitter here.
Race 7: Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes Handicap 1400m
BEGOOD TOYA MOTHER (14) was brave in the Memsie, sure she was beaten almost three lengths but she set up the race with a tempo that was impossible to continue throughout. Drawn well in three, she should be too quick early, has raced here at Caulfield earlier in her career, if the on-pacers are dominant early in the card I can see her being very heavily backed and start closer to 6/4 ($2.50) than what she has opened.
AMPHITRITE (12) was a real eye-catcher resuming in a race where it was much more favourable to be on the speed. Save on her, if the top pick goes too quick again, she will be the one flying home best. SO SI BON (5) has come back great and has been good at both handicap conditions and WFA. He will be mid-field in the run and keep grinding home. Not a lot of brilliance but very tough. BLACK HEART BART (2) is an old marvel and was a lot better fresh than what the margin suggests. He goes well second-up and maps well.
Race 8: 3YO Fillies Set Weights and Penalties 1400m
Tough, tough race on paper. KOOWERUP (1) still goes on top, even with the poor barrier, she is likely to get back anyway but hopefully they don’t just snag here and instead look for cover three-wide. She is good enough to sit wide and win, her run resuming was very encouraging hitting the line well. This is no harder.
Plenty of them. GINNY ANN (5) lost her position in the run and ended up running on well from last at Sandown when resuming. She should be handy throughout from the good draw.
ACTING (8) looks the leader, she was having her first go out of maiden grade last start and bolted in with a wire-to-wire effort. She has the wide gate but if she gets across effortlessly, maybe a bet in the run. BEAUTY BOLT (11) will find this harder, she is undefeated after two starts and although the margin wasn’t huge in an easier race last time, she wasn’t entitled to win after getting held-up at a vital stage.
Race 9: Handicap 1100m
TERBIUM (9) won his first four before being beaten in SA at G2 level, then was sent to the paddock. He resumed at the Valley a month ago and was very ordinary, was easy in the betting and ran accordingly. He is certainly better than that and has since been to the trials, hopefully we see the real him today.
An open race. PLAGUE STONE (5) will start at the top of the betting, he was a Listed winner over the Brisbane winter carnival before going to the paddock. He has trialed ok but prefer to take him at the short quote fresh off the wide draw. LYRE (8) has the inside draw, he won his only other second0-up run and will probably be ridden for luck as she will get back. TATO KEY (2) is an interesting runner having his first Australian start for Waller, he placed two of three in Dubai last prep, watch the betting with him.