Caulfield Racing Tips – Sat Aug 31
We will be at Caulfield this Saturday.
Track: Good 4. Rail: True.
Best Bet: Race 6 – BALL OF MUSCLE
Race 1: Handicap 2400m
An open race to start the day and it wouldn’t surprise if any of the seven returned to the winners stall. ALFARRIS (3) wasn’t suited at the mile first-up at the Valley, on a bigger track today where he is a winner at previously over this trip. HE will get a soft run behind the speed but will need them to roll along, he won’t want it to turn into a sit-sprint.
EXAMPLAR (5) is an import with the Lloyd Williams team, on the 7-day back-up out in trip may be the key as he hasn’t shown much at his two Australian starts. JINDA (6) will be rolling along early and trying to lead all the way as she has done at her last two starts, this is no harder. CEDAR GRANDE (7) comes back in trip, was held-up at the Valley at a vital stage last time but worked to the line ok. She is one paced but will keep coming.
Race 2: BM78 Handicap 1200m
DAWN DAWN (12) resumed here in a similar race last time, she was held-up early in the straight before getting a split at the furlong and hit the line well to be beaten under a length into second. She has won second-up previously and races well here at the track.
RUBAN BLEU (14) was a heavy track winner last start at Flemington up the straight, eh has placed at both runs here and should be charging late from the back. GODODDIN (13) was a winner here at the track three back, last start she was solid in the market and had no luck and wasn’t really tested over the concluding stages. She should be making her own luck today and have no such problems closer to the speed. BRAVO TANGO (1) is down in class and has a consistent record when racing fresh, watch the betting with him.
Race 3: Mares Handicap 1400m
MY PENDANT (4) has only finished further back than second once in her eight-start career, she flew home to get up in the last stride at Flemington last time in an easier race than this, she has versatility but I expect her to be mid-field with cover, a little concerning that this is her first go here at the track but she is so consistent. That one non-placing was at Group Three level where she was three-wide no cover and pulled up lame.
SHOKORA (5) just peaked on her run last time in the same race and had every chance, she does meet her a lot better at the weights here.
SPECIAL DIVA (6) also came through that race which looks the right form guide. She will lead for a long way, see how the track is playing. MUSIC BAY (2) is resuming with the concussion plates off, she has trialed well and has a good fresh record. Tough ask straight to the 1400m and she will be giving them a start. Happy to lay her.
Race 4: Heatherlie Handicap 1700m
BENITOITE (14) is still officially at her first prep, she has won four of her last five including the last two here at the track> she is going through the grades nicely, she will settle back in the run and run on hard.
GUIZOT (8) is another that has been up for a long time but is still racing well, he will also benefit from what should be a solid tempo and run on hard. STEEL PRINCE (3) is resuming, he won all five runs last prep all the way out to 2800m to win at Listed level at his latest. Straight to the 1700m fresh he looks a huge risk, happy to take him on. CAPTAIN COOK (6) has only had the one start in OZ, he worked home well and had been competitive at Listed level in the UK before arriving here.
Race 5: H.D.F McNeil Stakes 3YO Set Weights and Penalties 1200m
MISSILE MANTRA (9) ran on hard to win on debut at big odds, then started favourite and won again at Listed grade at start two. She was sent to the paddock and resumes today as a 3YO, she is a winner here at the track and distance and although she will be giving them a start, there looks a few speedsters here and the tempo should suit.
KING OF HASTINGS (3) was also a winner here at the track and trip before going to the paddock, he has versatility and drawn well, I anticipate that he will be mid-field at worst. He has won a recent trial at Cranbourne also on the heavy track. SUPER SETH (4) has been to the races three times for two wins, both of those were from back in the field. Her third run she led them up and stuck on only fairly at Flemington, expect that she will be back in the run again here fresh. PEIDRA (5) over-raced, was held-up at a vital stage but was still too classy for them at Sandown last time to remain undefeated. The ride will be key with her drawn out, where will she get to?
Race 6: The Heath Set Weights and Penalties 1100m
BALL OF MUSCLE (1) resumed in this race last year, drawn wide on the track he showed his customary early dash, ran to the front and never looked like getting run down. He loves it here at Caulfield, is very quick early, has trialed brilliantly and will lead for a long way. 1100m is my guess, I am very keen on him.
There has been a lot of talk about the recent trial of VEGA MAGIC (4), he is a real winner but he hasn’t won a race in more than year! Too poor to be true in the Everest after not handling the track, resumed in the TJ Smith in the Autumn and was the first beaten and featured in the stewards report. The blinkers go back on but do you want to be taking close to flip of the coin odds about a horse who has been beaten 35 lengths at his last two? MALAGUERRA (5) will be hitting the line hard, he flies fresh with 5 wins from 8 starts. GYTRASH (3) won two in a row up the straight through the early winter, the latest at Listed grade. He is likely to be giving them a start here but races well fresh.
Race 7: W.W Cockram Stakes Mares Set Weights and Penalties 1200m
Looking around the two favourites, AMPHITRITE (1) is well above average and has won 2 from 3 fresh as she is today. She got all the way out to an Oaks trip in the Spring last year before resuming with a dominant win over 1400m fresh, the second horse that day was Verry Elleegant. She will be giving them a start and may find it a tad short, but I can see them going hard, any horse that was only beaten a little over three lengths in an All Star Mile by the current Cox Plate favourite should not be double figures. She looks an outstanding each-way bet.
SYLVIA’S MOTHER (11) and PIPPIE (13) are the ones that will be fighting out favourtism, both are real winners but both have things against them. Pippie will want to lead and I don’t know if she gets it, if she does, she may have to work. Sylvia’s Mother has the inside gate which can be deadly here at Caulfield over 1200m. Happy to be against them at the short quotes, although they certainly both must be included in the Quaddie. FIDELIA (9) won four in a row before going to the paddock, look for her late, she will be giving them a start!
Race 8: Memsie Stakes WFA 1400m
ALIZEE (11) resumed in Sydney three weeks ago, she was heavily backed in what was only an average field, sat back, sprinted hard as she can do and put a gap on them before Hughie eased her down. The second horse ran to within 0.2 lengths but that was not a true indication, he has come out and ran a nice race at Group One level in Sydney last week. This guy is a star, he was a Group One winner in the Futurity last time at the track, very hard to beat.
I am really interested to see how SESAR (10) stands up in this grade. He was a brilliant winner in Sydney resuming, looked a little plain second-up then was very good late up the straight last time. He is a star, just needs to step up to this grade. BEGOOD TOYA MOTHER (9) is very speedy and also has to take a huge leap into this grade, the trainer has said that he thinks he is still 12 months away but is here anyway? He can be on the speed for a long way. CLIFF’S EDGE (6) gets the perfect run behind the leader and always runs an honest race.
Race 9: Handicap 1400m
ICONOCLASM (2) was poor on the heavy track resuming and looks the real improver back on top of the ground. He had been tackling some of the best sprinters in the land over the last year, his win here in the Autumn was such a brave effort.
Tough race and you surely have to play wide in the Quaddie. NIGHT’S WATCH (1) is one of mine, he is such a great horse and has now been transferred to the Waller yard. He probably will thrive over further but has a terrific record resuming and has shown that he can sprint well fresh. Blinkers off, he’s the class runner, look for him late. ANTAH (14) was outclassed here last start a fortnight ago, this doesn’t look a lot easier but he maps well. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him straight on the back of the leading pair early. If AGE OF CHIVALRY (18)
or ROX THE CASTLE (19) get a start, they will both be well in the market and must be considered, particularly the former as he will probably be the leader.