Caulfield Racing Tips – Sat July 27
We will be at Caulfield this Saturday.
Track: Soft 6. Rail: Out 6m entire circuit.
Best Bet: Race 5 – TAVIRUN
Race 1: VOBIS Gold Ingot 2YO Set Weights and Penalties 1400m
CAN’T BE DONE (1) has been cleaning up the prizemoney in these Vobis races, he won well on debut and has yet to miss a place at four career runs. He has good tactical speed and although he was run down over the 1200m last time, stepping up to the 1400m looks ok as he should get a soft lead off the inside gate. If he is left alone in front, they won’t be running him down.
SPIRIT MEDIUM (7) looks the obvious danger, she wasn’t far away in the strong Elvstroem Classic at Swan Hill over the carnival then got her maiden win out of the way last time when bolting in at Bendigo. Whichever of those two land on the bunny, will be winning. FOREVER LOUD (5) and NOBLE FIGHT (4) for exotic players but it looks a race in two.
Race 2: Fillies and Mares Handicap 1100m
Siggie Carr gets the steer on the visiting Tasmanian I REMEMBER YOU (4), she is first-up today after a super prep last time where she only tasted defeat once. She may be more suited to the 1400m, but fresh at the 6 furlongs here off the wide gate I expect they will ride her forward and hopefully get the spot outside the leader. From there she can dictate and put them away early in the straight.
If they go crazy in front then MISS IANO (3) will be the one coming from the back the hardest. She has been up for a while and is racing consistently, but really needs the races set-up for her. MISS NORWAY (1) won six of her first twelve starts but is yet to salute this prep at three runs. She is dropping back in class against the girls but will be giving them a start. I AM QUEEN (7) had looked awful at two runs this campaign but did have excuses, her win up on the speed at Bendigo last time was a big improvement.
Race 3: BM78 Handicap 1600m
Tough race where you should expect to get better than each way odds the field. SATORI (7) has been consistent this prep placing at three of four, he is drawn well again and will be up close to the speed. He did have his chance here last time a fortnight ago in a similar race but in open races, horses that are consistent and map well are the best each-way plays.
LAURE ME IN (3) has a stack of ability, he was only fair at best when resuming then didn’t have much luck at a vital stage last time. He gets out to the mile which looks his best distance, the draw is a little concerning as he may get too far back. Maybe wait until he gets back to Flemington? ROYAL ORDER (5) will also get back and needs to improve on his record here at Caulfield, he was an eye-catcher last start in the Winter Champs final though. BALLET MASTER (11) is another that falls under the consistent title, he has placed at his last five and runner-up at four of those, but has he forgotten how to win? Oliver on looks one of the better jockey changes of the card.
Race 4: VOBIS Gold Stayers Set Weights and Penalties 2400m
FANCIFUL TOFF (3) has been up for a long time but if you take out his last run in Sydney, he has been so consistent. He pulled up lame off that run north of the border so willing to forgive him on that very heavy track, Willow replaces Jenny Duggan in what can only improve the horse. He will likely be third or fourth pair back in the run and certainly runs the trip.
There looks only two other chances. SOPRESSA (1) was sent north for cracks at the Brisbane, Caloundra and Grafton Cups, placing in the latest two. She looks well in at the conditions of the race and should roll forward early. SASKO (2) looks the other main hope, he looks the leader and may not get it easy. He has won twice this prep, one of them on the heavy track over further so the trip won’t bother him.
AMEROCK (4) next best but for minors in exotics only.
Race 5: Super VOBIS 3YO Handicap 2400m
TAVIRUN (2) looks the best of the day. He has beaten up on similar fields at his last two, the first of those was an all the way win where he left them standing in the straight to bolt in by almost 4 lengths. He then took a sit last time and got the split at the top of the straight, again showed good acceleration and was strong through the line. He does have to step up to the 2400m here but he maps so well, gun apprentice Teo Nugent will have the options early.
RIPCORD (3) looks the only danger if any. He is an interesting runner who has only had the three starts, he won his maiden in NZ at career start number two before heading across the Tasman, was first-up at Pakenham on the synthetic and bolted in over 2200m and looked like he wanted further. AMERICAN IN PARIS (4) has been up for a long time and hasn’t won since first-up this prep over a mile at Donald. WEALTHY WOLF (5) comes through the same race as him and made up good ground, this is his first go here at Caulfield though which can be tricky.
Race 6: VOBIS Gold Reef 3YO Set Weights and Penalties 1600m
TURN THE TIDE (1) looks a real professional, he was working up to his last start win with good efforts over unsuitably shorter trips earlier in the prep, maps well here and should have the cold sit. He was strong through the line last start after a perfect ride over 1400m, up to the mile here with Dwayne Dunn staying on. Hard to beat.
BENITOITE (9) is still officially on her first prep, she has won three of five and looks to have plenty of upside. She had two good wet track wins and then didn’t have much room to move late at Flemington last time in a harder race than this. Look for her late. ZARGOS (8) actually beat her home that day but had every chance, she is a winner second-up previously. TAKSU (4) was good winning from further back last time but I expect that he will be ridden positively early in an open race, he could lead for a long way.
Race 7: 3YO Fillies Handicap 1200m
PICKUP THE PIECES (5) is resuming, she won fresh last campaign and her only other first-up run was on debut where she was beaten by a rather handy horse by the name of Brutal! She has tactical speed, the good draw, a good claim and if she has come back anywhere near 100%, she will be very hard to run down.
STREET ICON (6) looks the obvious danger. She has race fitness on her side with a nice effort here resuming when narrowly missing after racing on the speed. She has the wide draw and just looks a little vulnerable if she has to sit without cover. VOILA (2) and CALZINI (7) both come through the same form line and ran on well, the former has had another start since when she was only hitting her top gear late. Look for them at the back-end if the tempo is hot.
Race 8: Bletchingly Stakes WFA 1200m
Unfortunately, we don’t see the return of the star Mystic Journey today, this was penciled in as her return to racing but connections were not willing to start her on a rain affected track. It results in the impressive last start winner in Sydney, SESAR (6), to likely start very short and into the red in betting, and deservedly so. He had won at Group Two level in the Spring before having a long break, resumed at Randwick against a similar field and absolutely smoked them with an impressive turn-of-foot from the back and couldn’t have been more impressive. Second-up a slight concern but he really looks to have come back well. A star of the future (but is a colt so we won’t see him long if he is that good).
CLIFF’S EDGE (3) is resuming, will be giving them a start and probably needs further. He will be back with the top pick early but doubt he will be able to match the speed of him when they press the go button. JUNGLE EDGE (2) is going around again and gets the favourable conditions, he will jump and run and be hard to catch as always but is 0/11 here at the track! Happy to lay him hard. SCALES OF JUSTICE (1) has been racing the best of the best in WA, has a great fresh record and is a must for all exotics.
Race 9: Handicap 1400m
I liked the way that TSHAHITSI (2) hit the line first-up in a harder race than this at Flemington up the straight, he wasn’t electric but stuck on at the one speed which looks suitable in a race like this. he steps up to the 1400m, he led all the way at this track and distance to win at Listed level last prep second-up and gets the gun claim with Nugent taking three kilos off.
I THOUGHT SO (3) was ok when well beaten in the Sir John Monash here last time, this is a drop in class from that and he was ok through the line. TRAVIMYFRIEND (7) bolted in here in a similar race last time but was huge odds, happy to take him on as he will be a third of the odds what he was that day. He will need everything to go right in the run. ROMANCER (5) comes through the Winter Champs final last start, he will go forward but may have to sit wide and hasn’t run a place at Caulfield in two starts to date.