Caulfield Racing Tips -Sat Jan 4
We will be at Caulfield this Sat.
Track: Good 4. Rail: Out 3m entire circuit.
Best Bet: Race 4 – BAM’S ON FIRE
Race 1: 3YO BM70 Handicap 1100m
HOW WOMANTIC (10) was super at the jump-outs prior to her maiden win at Geelong, she really looks to have a bright future. She was beautifully ridden that day, camped behind the leaders before angling clear. She took a while to balance up and get past the leader but once she did, she really hit the line hard. The margin was just over a length but it was a gap job to third.
OCULAR (7) sat up on the speed and was dominant winning on debut by almost three lengths at Werribee. This is harder but he looks to have the tactical advantage over his main rivals. GOLDEN GORGE (6) was heavily backed to win his maiden at Bendigo on debut, he charged home out wide for an easy win, the margins were large also. HARD PRESS (2) was having his first go out of maiden grade when resuming at Sandown, he led throughout to win narrowly but did seem all out on the line. He has to carry the 60kg and gets the winkers for the first time.
Race 2: Fillies and Mares BM84 Handicap 1100m
CLARICE CLIFFS (2) has only missed a place once in her career, that was at her latest run up the straight before going to the paddock. She didn’t trial brilliantly, I am taking her on trust and her natural speed should be able to see her lead for a long way.
PROPELLE (8) ran on well against the boys last time up the straight, she has a good record here and looks the main danger if the top pick doesn’t get a soft lead. OUR CAMPANA (5) looks the only other winning chance. She should get a soft run behind the leader, she was a good winner up the straight at Flemington last time and doesn’t know how to run a bad race. OCEAN DEEP (3) next best but for the minor places only.
Race 3: BM84 Handicap 1100m
TONY NICCONI (4) has not won since August of 2018 when he saluted in a Group Three race here as a 3YO. He was a little disappointing throughout his last campaign, take him o his ability and the fact that he will be up on the speed for a long way. He has won fresh previously.
It looks an open race on paper and any one of the small field returning to the winners stall wouldn’t shock me. THE LAST NAPOLEAN (10) was super winning at the Valley last time, he was mid-field in the run saving ground before balancing up in the straight and storming home to win comfortably. ZALMONA (1) showed improvement last start across the border in SA where he is trained, he has an impressive overall record and maps well. WISE HERO (6) gets a couple of gear changes coming off two average runs this prep, he maps well but does need to improve.
Race 4: BM70 Handicap 1200m
BAM’S ON FIRE (3) looks an incredible price on what she has been Sp’ing of late. Two back she was odds on at Ballarat in this grade and ran on hard fresh to just miss, she then went to Flemington last start and was favourite again at 84 grade against the girls, she looked to have every chance when placing but just raced a little flat second-up. Fully fit here form a good gate, she should be winning.
MONTENEGRO MAN (13) is yet to win out of maiden grade but races very consistently, he ran on hard here at the track resuming to just miss as favourite in an easier race. Look for him late. LICKO’PAINT (14) has the poor draw to match her saddlecloth, she resumed at the Valley three weeks ago and bolted in after sitting up on the speed. If she can get across and control the tempo, she will have the tactical advantage over her two main rivals. MUMBLES (5) ran on well last start at Flemington in a harder race than this, down in class he should be attacking the line late.
Race 5: 3YO Fillies BM70 Handicap 1400m
MRS BECKHAM (6) resumed at Sandown in early December, she got a mile back and charged home to run third. She then came here last time and was well backed to get her first win, she sat up on the speed this time and was way too good, winning by 3 lengths. She looks to have come back well and can take the next step up in this grade.
SHEZAWITNESS (2) has won 2 of 4 in her career, she looked to have every chance at the Valley last time but did well enough to hold onto second. I expect her to drift alarmingly between now and jump time with her SP profile. PARMIE (1) had no luck when placing at Flemington last time out, she was caught up behind the leader for most of the straight and only got out over the last 100m or so. LA ZOLA (8) has a stack of speed and looks the leader, she may be worth a bet and lay in the run as she should shorten after a few 100m when she lobs on the bunny.
Race 6: BM64 Handicap 1400m
The first leg of the Quaddie and looks tough, very tough. Play wide, it will hurt your percentage but it really is an open race and no less than 10 chances, if not more! THUNDERDOME (4) is yet to win out of maiden grade but he rarely runs a bad race. He wasn’t beaten far when narrowly missing a place at the Valley last time, he was stuck three wide no cover in a brave effort. There have been two winners come through that race since so it looks the right form line. NECESSARY (5) was held-up early in the straight at Echuca last start in an easier race before charging home to win. This is harder but that was an impressive win coming back from a long break. NIGHT GUY (13) will also be giving them a start, he won debut before being sent to the paddock and his two runs since resuming have been encouraging. He looks to plenty of upside. MONTASER (3) won at Donald two back then placed at Sandown last time after running on from the back, he didn’t have a lot of room for the first half of the straight and really hit the line well over the last furlong.
Race 7: BM78 Handicap 1400m
CONQUEROR (11) is not officially first-up but has been away from the races for 7 weeks. The last time we saw him he was very good in the Group Two Sandown Guineas. He may need a little luck getting away from the inside but should hit the line hard.
TURN THE TIDE (3) won a similar race to this here at the track last time by a big margin, he does have to carry the extra weight here today with the 60kg. He would only need to repeat that performance to be winning again.
ANALYTICA (10) is also engaged on New Years Day, he settled closer last start and must be included I the numbers if he starts here. JITTERY JACK (8) was brave in defeat at Bendigo last start after sitting three-wide without cover for the majority. Any rain around wouldn’t hurt his chances.
Race 8: BM84 Handicap 1600m
JUST BENJAMIN (12) is an interesting runner having his first Australian start for the Freedman yard. He won 2 of 5 when racing in the UK, he has had 6 months off but looks to have plenty of ability. First-up at the mile shouldn’t be an issue but I would like to see some money for him.
KAZIO (3) is drawn wide but will get back anyway, he has been good placing at his last couple. STREET SHEIK (2) was good at the Bool last time, he was held-up before hitting the lead and then getting run down late. He just needs to be saved for one run at them. HOWLOWCANYOUGO (9) settled closer at Yarra Valley last start and it proved a winning move, this is harder and the draw is awkward but he is a real winner.
Race 9: BM70 Handicap 2000m
DONNDUBHAN (3) is flying this prep, he was having his first look at the track last time and gave nothing else a chance when leading throughout. He will go forward once again, if he lands on the bunny with the good claim, they won’t be running him down.
THE BLACK LEOPARD (2) had his chance here at the track last start, after having a soft run in transit, took the lead inside the furlong before being swamped late. SKELM (7) rises in grade after a dominant win at Sandown last time. He was well back in the run before getting to the outside, he ran to the lead at the furlong pole and won comfortably by 3 lengths.
PINA (11) is having her first run at the track but is very consistent, she will get back and run on hard.