November 17, 2019
Tips

Canterbury (Wed)

Newcastle

Canterbury Racing Tips – Wed Sept 25

We will be at Canterbury this Wednesday.

Track: Soft 6. Rail: Out 3m entire circuit.

Best Bet: Race 1 – LAKIA

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Race 1: 3YO BM64 Handicap 1250m

LAKIA (3) won her maiden two back against the girls, she then came out at Randwick in the mid-weeks at 70 grade and although she tried hard up on the speed, was beaten on her merits. She should go forward again from the wide gate, expect Nash to punch her out early and be hard to run down.

Dangers:

SANGRIA (6) looks the main danger, she will also be pushing forward and the tactics will be interesting. She bolted in at Hawkesbury last time, make of that what you will. She may be starting under the odds though. POINT OF INTEREST (7) was fresh last start having her first start out of maiden grade, she had a soft run on the rails and hit the line well enough. She maps to get the same run here also. BIGBOYROY (5) has been gelded and is still a maiden, just worried about the inside alley.

Race 2: Maiden Handicap 1550m

RELUCENT (3) is an interesting runner that travels up the Hume, he has been good through the ine at his last two starts. He did over-race last time and will be giving them a start. Look for him late, I doubt the betting will tell you much with him, a visiting Waller runner rarely does.

Dangers:

LEWIS (4) was beaten comfortably last time but the margin to third was noticeable. A stablemate to the top pick, may be best to play them both here. KIRWAN’S LANE (5) gets the blinkers on for the first time, he has struggled to get into the race at his last couple, maybe the addition of blinkers will get him to settle closer. BATTENBURG (8) hasn’t done a lot but can improve if the speed is on up front.

Race 3: BM70 Handicap 1900m

GENOVEFFA (6) won two in a row before running into a very smart winner last time, she has had soft runs but looks to be off the rail here. That may benefit her as she can get to the outside earlier and wind-up. Tommy Berry is riding well and with confidence.

Dangers:

WAKING MOMENT (7) had excuses last start, she found trouble at a couple of stages and was held-up late. Forget she went around. KELVINSIDE (8) doesn’t win out of turn, he comes through the same race as the top pick last time and hit the line well. He will need to get the back of the right horse in the run to the turn. FASTNET CYCLONE (3) has poor numerical form but produced some good sectionals last time over the last furlong.

Race 4: Colts Geldings and Entires BM76 Handicap 1550m

FALCON ISLAND (1) has had two runs back off almost a year on the sidelines. He over-raced and stuck on well fresh, then was at Randwick again last time and led for a long time before walking late. He gets the blinkers on again, wide gate should see him roll forward and try to control the tempo.

Dangers:

ADANA (3) won a harder race two back but probably needs a heavy track, DEVIL’S LAIR (4) didn’t handle the heavy track last time and never got into the race, he really accelerated hard when finally clear two back. JOHNNY VINKO (6) looks suited getting out further in trip, he no doubt can run into a place but I am happy to take him on here.

Race 5: Fillies and Mares BM76 Handicap 1550m

DUCHESS OF LENNOX (4) was desperately unlucky when resuming at Randwick three weeks ago, her maiden win came when second-up as she is today. She got right out to the Oaks trip at the back-end of her last campaign, she should be hitting the line hard.

Dangers:

ALMERHERI (7) won at Warwick Farm two back and again place there last time after getting further back. She is up in grade and back against the girls. ACHONDRITE (9) comes through the same form lines as a couple that we like in Race 3, I expect him to settle closer again here today. ZOURHEA (6) got through the heavy ground well to win at Wyong, this is harder and will appreciate if it stays a soft track.

Race 6: BM78 Handicap 1250m

FOREIGN TERRITORY (5) is an interesting runner that is having his first go for the Bjorn Baker yard, he showed potential for the Gai/Bott team before going to the paddock last time and changing stables. The team are flying, he has trialed well enough and I expect him to be backed from double figures in.

Dangers:

SAFADO (1) is resuming and is a perfect 2/2 when racing fresh, he has trialed well and this does look easier than last time where he was in the Provincial Champs. An improving track condition will assist also. SPANISH DREAM (2) is very consistent and will be making his own luck up on the speed, McCORMACK (6) next best but need to see him win again before backing him.

Race 7: BM78 Handicap 1100m

KYLEASE (11) was beaten as favourite in the Hawkesbury Guineas before going to the paddock, always happy to pen that form line. She resumed here a fortnight ago, opened very short in the betting but was a big drifter. She had to work very hard to find the front and never really looked likely, she bolted in when second-up last prep. Expect her to bounce back here.

Dangers:

HOUSE OF CARTIER (3) may need further, they had an opinion of her last prep and sent her to SA for the Oaks at G1 level. If they go crazy in front, she may be a nice inclusion into the exotics. DEFERENCE (14) is still officially at his first prep but has had a month freshen-up, he led a much stronger field last time and may be the thorn in the side of the top pick. CALIFORNIA ZIMBOL (13) was sent north for black type racing over the winter after an impressive Canterbury maiden win on debut, she has trialed well and will benefit if they go crazy up front.

Race 8: Fillies and Mares BM70 Handicap 1100m

BALLISTICA (1) won resuming after giving them a start and a beating, she then tackled a harder race against the girls and again ran on well to place and produced some good sectionals. Drawn horribly she may get out to a big price and the Baker stable is flying.

Dangers:

LUNA MIA (8) bolted in a Class 1 at Muswellbrook resuming, she then went to Scone and was a very short priced fave and won by more than 5. She may just be too good for them, don’t have her as a red result here. SUPER OASIS (13) has got a stack of gear changes, she chased hard but had her chance last time. She was well backed in what was her first go out of maiden grade, she will be winning again soon. SALLY’S DAY (14) is a last start maiden winner, just not sure she is the best of those that won’t be on the speed here.

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