November 17, 2019
Tips

Canterbury (Wed)

Newcastle

Canterbury Racing Tips – Wed June 19

We will be at Canterbury this Wednesday.

Track: Heavy 9. Rail: True.

Best Bet: Race 4 – 7 AUSTRIA

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Race 1: 2YO Colts and Geldings Set Weights 1100m

EXCEED THE STARS (1) is amazingly having his third prep as a 2Y), most notably he has been gelded since he has last been seen at the races. He has twice been seen at Group Three level and beaten less than 3 lengths at each, his latest run was at Hawkesbury and his run was huge in defeat. He tried to buck at the  start, was held-up at a vital stage before running on well. He obviously had issues and talent, the snip looked necessary.

Dangers:

PAPAL WARRIOR (7) wasn’t beaten far on debut, sent straight out and has been good at the trials recently. Expect him to go forward fresh and this camp knows how to train a youngster. RULE THE WORLD (8) is on debut, he has trialed well as you would expect from the Waterhouse/Bott team and will be ready to go. VICI (9) was a little hit or miss at his first prep and has also been gelded, he can measure up to this grade.

Race 2: 2YO Fillies Set Weights 1100m

MINI BOOM (12) has showed good tactical speed as is the norm with the Waterhouse/Bott team, on both occasions she has been on the pace and just not good enough. She gets the blinkers on for the first time and hopefully can find the front, there doesn’t look any stars here.

Dangers:

LUCICELLO (11) has the wide gate and has speed also and will be making her own luck up front. She has been beaten favourite at both starts so has the SP profile but punters won’t give her many more chances. AQUITAINE (1) probably should have won on debut, she was held-up at a vital stage then ran on well late, she failed to win it post-race in the steward’s room when the protest was unsuccessful. DARLING POINT (3) is a debutant that has trialed well on a soft track, watch the betting with all of the debutants.

Race 3: 3YO BM70 Handicap 1900m

MILUNKA (11) has not missed a place at her four career starts, she was ridiculously short winning her maiden last time after a perfect ride. This is obviously harder but she maps well again here, look for her late.

Dangers:

TAJ (9) is a last start winner at 64 grade, he got very wide when making his run and bolted in. He may have the back of the top pick when the runs come which looks ideal.  ULUSABA (5) was well beaten behind her last time, she had to work early to find the lead and it told late. If she gets the soft lead she will be hard to run past. GUISE (4) gets the blinkers for the first time, she has a terrific record north of the border and clearly handles the wet tracks.

Race 4: 4YO&Up BM70 Handicap 1900m

AUSTRIA (7) was a real eye-catcher behind an up and comer last time, she was a mile back and looking for runs whilst the winner was wide and already had the momentum. She gets the blinkers on, has not missed a place in three rain-affected track runs, and will run the trip.

Dangers:

FRASCATI MISS (8) comes through that same race and did have support at double figure odds, she was only beaten 2.3 lengths.  BALMAIN BOY (2) notified a change of tactics last time to lead but couldn’t get there early, the form is strong through that race but he did have every chance. SONAREE (1) will have support but looks a great lay to me, he comes through the same race as Balmain Boy but had every chance and didn’t seem to run it out strong enough. The step up looks a huge negative.

Race 5: 3YO Fillies BM70 Handicap 1250m

AIM FOR PROTECTION (4) is undefeated after two starts, she ran on hard at her debut at Newcastle and bolted in, then settled closer up on the speed at sat Class 1 level last tie and was dominant again. She gets the good claim, this looks only a small step up in class and that spot outside the leader should be good enough to run away in the straight.

Dangers:

DAME KIRI (5) is very consistent and has a great record second-up, she was beaten at a short quote resuming but ran on well enough. BRAZILICA (6) was heavily backed to win on debut and was only fair when trying to lead all the way last time. Resuming today, she will need to begin well to use the inside gate to her advantage. MISTEED (7) is resuming also, and has trialed well enough, she will be giving them a start but if they go crazy up front, look for her late.

Race 6: Colts Geldings and Entires BM70 Handicap 1200m

ACCELERATO (8) came through a good form race fresh, then went to the Kenso track last time and was heavily backed and ran on well. He steps up to the 6 furlongs which looks ideal and gets the blinkers for the first time, he should be able to settle closer and will finish hard.

Dangers:

EMBRACER (5) has started favourite at all four starts, beaten at three of them and is on the quick back-up. He has speed and looks the leader, the addition of the tongue tie suggests that there was an issue last time. He will need it cheap in front. ABOVE AND BEYOND (3) is consistent without cashing a cheque this time in, he will be mid-field and running on hard. RAFHA’S CHOICE (2) will also go forward and probably has to sit outside the leader. He and Embracer may bring themselves undone.

Race 7: BM70 Handicap 1550m

Probably the toughest race on the card. MUSUME (7) is in good form winning two of her last three, she looks the leader, see how the track is playing earlier in the day and if it is favouring those on the speed, she looks a brilliant each-way bet to nothing.

Dangers:

GUIPURE (6) will map at the back end of the field and will need the speed on but is consistent. SILENT EXPLORER (3) was only fair fresh but that’s the norm for him, he has a better record second-up and will appreciate the step up in trip. KURNEL JAXON (1) has a couple of gear changes, he settled a lot closer last time and should be near peak fitness third-up after having almost a year on the sidelines.

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