December 14, 2019
Featured Tips

Ballarat (Sat)

Moonee Valley

Ballarat Racing Tips – Sat Nov 23

We will be at Ballarat this Sat.

Track: Good 4. Rail: True.

Best Bet: Race 5 – CAN’T BE DONE

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Race 1: Mares BM78 Handicap 1200m

PERSUADER (1) won a BM84 last start at Kyneton, she sat up behind the speed before taking over inside the furlong and was strong through the line winning by 3 lengths. Drawn well again with the good claim, she has to be right in this.

Dangers:

TAHITIAN DANCER (5) should be fully wound up for this third-up, she won resuming then was held-up at a vital stage last time at Flemington on the last day of the carnival. GINA’S HOPE (11) wasn’t ran on ok on Melbourne Cup Day in a race that has proved a good form reference, TIARA STAR (9) brings different form lines over from SA but has been very consistent. She has versatility but Zahra will probably be closer than mid-field from the good draw.

Race 2: BM70 Handicap 1100m

BAM’S ON FIRE (3) won three in a row before placing at Listed level up the straight prior to going to the paddock. She is a good fresh horse and was going through her grades nicely, she would only need to be 80% ready to be winning this.

Dangers:

BIG EFFORT (1) is an interesting runner that is now with the Danny O’Sullivan yard. He has only had 2 runs in the last 2.5 years, obviously has had his problems and would like to see some money for him. As usual all eyes will be on the son of the mighty mare Black Caviar PRINCE OF CAVIAR (13), the potential is there but he looks a little camera shy? GINGER JONES (8) has placed at two previous fresh runs, he should go forward and be up on the speed. The favourite looks one of the best of the day.

Race 3: BM78 Handicap 2600m

SADDLE THE SUN (9) led all the way at Seymour two back in an easier race than this, he then went to Flemington on the last day of the Cup carnival and was brave in defeat. He sat three-wide without cover for most of the 2000m and after hitting the lead, was nabbed late. He is a winner here at his only other run, a maiden win over 1200m!!

Dangers:

CREEDENCE (3) ran on well at Flemington over 2800m last start, Willow will have him tucked up on the inside and saved for one long run late. DEFIBRILLATE (4) will find this tougher but can’t do any more than what he has done in two starts since coming from NZ. There was no money for him last time as favourite at the Valley, they were wrong! STEALTHY LUCAS (6) won the Ararat Cup last start, he is one paced but will keep grinding away.

Race 4: Magic Millions Clockwise 2YO Set Weights 1000m

Too hard! The babies run the reverse direction here in the rich Magic Millions sale race. Only four of them have been to the track previously, and all four seem to have a chance. RATHLIN (3) was ok on debut in the Maribyrnong Plate and gets the blinkers on today. EUPHORIC SUMMER (6) was very green on debut at Caulfield, ran up to join in at the 200m mark but found one better. POUNCE (10) comes through that same race and showed plenty of speed to lead. LA GIRL (7) went up the straight on Cup Day, she was very green and draws wide.

Race 5: VOBIS Gold Eureka Stockade 3YO Set Weights and Penalties 1400m

CAN’T BE DONE (1) did well to run into second last start when resuming up the straight, there was some good money for him that day and this looks easier. Jamie Mott to Craig Williams looks a huge bonus, I expect him to lead throughout.

Dangers:

CASSIUS (3) has been gelded since we last saw him at the races, He won his maiden in a VOBIS race up the road at Bendigo last prep and although he may need further, could sprint well fresh off the chop. ZORRO’S DREAM (6) was a brilliant winner at career start number two last time at Kyneton, he sat just off the pace and showed a brilliant turn-of-foot to win easily. ROCKING EAGLE (5) won on debut and then hit the line hard at start two at Bendigo, he should settle closer here.

Race 6: BM78 Handicap 1600m

BUMPER BLAST (1) won his maiden at sale by a widening 6.5 lengths, an impressive margin at any level of racing. He then went to a BM90 over the Cup carnival, admittedly it was the greys race so not the strongest 90 you will see, was very heavily backed and won easily. Tough draw, will need some Willow brilliance, but this guy is very talented. So is the horse.

Dangers:

STRATEGIC PHIL (10) won back-to-back races at Mornington and Cranbourne, he was brave in defeat last time after being forced to chase the two leaders and was beaten under half a length. O’TAUTO (4) was a real eye-catcher fresh behind the star Harbour Views, he didn’t have a lot of room in the Final of that race when running on late. He will be flashing at them no doubt. BLINDER (14) has been very consistent and also comes through that Country Final where he placed. This will be a great form race going forward.

Race 7: BM84 Handicap 1400m

Wow where to look here! DEBT COLLECTOR (9) didn’t have much luck in the run in SA last time, when he got out, he drove hard to get up by the barest of margins. HE probably should have won the start prior when resuming as well, drawn well with soli claim from Teo Nugent.

Dangers:

All of them? BRAVO TANGO (1) probably would have gone on top, but he has drawn 20! He was a solid winner on Cup Day at Flemington but just hard to know where he will get to from out there, would have preferred a jockey change although well done to the connections for sticking with Billy Egan. MARCEL FROM MADRID (5) is enigmatic but showed his best wining at Ararat recently in the feature after a soft rails run back in the field. He should hit the line hard. OVER EXPOSURE (6) creates interest for the McEvoy team, he has a good overall record but has been off the scene for almost 18 months. He won a trial at Tatura last week, watch the betting for any confidence.

Race 8: Ballarat Cup Handicap 2000m

I am going chips in on FIFTY STARS (1) here. He was flying at this time last year (with Darren Weir) and then took started well in the Autumn for the new team before his form tapered off a little. He was good in the Kennedy mile and chased hard in the Mackinnon behind the brilliant winner, this looks his race.

Dangers:

SUZUKA CEVIOUS (2) is a Japanese runner that hasn’t done a lot since arriving, but there was a lot to like about how he ra through the line in the Mackinnon last start. DR DRILL (5) is flying winning his last couple, firstly in Sydney and then last time at Cranbourne in their Cup. It looks a tricky draw for him though off the inside as he will need to wind-up, it’s going to take a Willow masterclass. THE LORD MAYOR (8) comes down from Sydney after having no luck at Rosehill last start, he only got out over the last 50m.

Race 9: Magic Millions 3&4YO Classic Set Weights 1100m

EF TROOP (1) is a new addition to the McEvoy stable, the former Tony Gollan runner racked up three wins from 12 starts in Qld. He has a great record first-up and bolted in at a recent trial at Murray Bridge, happy to take him on trust.

Dangers:

STAR FALL (3) is a dual acceptor both here and north of the border at Kembla on their big day, he is resuming and was a winner fresh last campaign before making it three wins on the trot. HAWKER HURRICANE (6) is yet to win out of maiden grade, showed a stack of potential before a poor finish to his juvenile year. He looks to have come back well though this prep and will be up on the speed for a long way. KING OF HASTINGS (7) has not finished further back than second at 5 career starts, Willow has only ridden him once for a win back in June at Caulfield. He has won a trial on the heavy track, he clearly handles all conditions (probably more relevant going forward than today)..

Race 10: Handicap 1200m

ESPERANCE (16) will find this easier than what he faced running second on the last day of the Cup carnival, he was off the scene for almost a year but has run on hard at both runs since resuming. He should be fully wound up and out to the 6 furlongs here third-up.

Dangers:

HOLBEIN (9) has the wide draw to overcome but I think it might just be handlebars down from out there with the claiming rider. WILLIAM THOMAS (6) is very consistent but always needs everything to go right as he will get back and run on. TAVISAN (5) will want to lead, but at what costs? The huge field should ensure they are coming from everywhere early. He was super winning the Apache Cat at Cranbourne but the 1200m on the big track will be a test.

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