Caulfield Cup Day Preview

Rail: Out 6m entire circuit. Track: Good 3.

Best Bet: Race 10 – Nieta. Drops in grade here and if she produces her Sydney form and gets even luck, will be winning this. Likely to be well backed. $2.50 available at time of writing.

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Race 1: Resimax Group Plate 1400m.

COUNTERPLAY (3) was good last week in a harder race than this, she came very wide in the run to the straight but still ran through the line well although never looking the winner. This is easier.

Dangers:

JUSTICE GLORY (4) has had 7 weeks off the scene, has enough speed to lead from out there and has trialed well since her last start failure here. OUR CROWN MISTRESS (6) has good speed also and will be carving across, she has to step up a stack in class but all three career runs have been good. She probably needs to lead to win. NAANTALI (11) was a good maiden winner last time on debut, this is a lot harder but she maps to get a soft run.

Race 2: Polytrack Gothic Stakes 1400m.

LORD SUNDOWNER (8) has shown a stack of speed at his latest two wins, gave nothing else a chance last time and the jock sat up late, winning by 4+ lengths. Look for him charging across early in a harder race here.

Dangers:

ÉCLAIR SUNSHINE (3) hit a little flat spot last time in the Guineas Prelude, balanced up and finished off nicely in what was his first look at the track. He should get a soft mid-field run and get home nicely. BEAU GESTE (2) is a Sydney visitor that has not missed a placing in his 4 start career. Has tactical speed but just not sure where he positions up in this, getting caught wide at the 1400m here is dangerous. SNITZEPEG (1) is a last start Listed winner at HQ, was beautifully ridden that day but doesn’t get that same soft run here.

Race 3: New Zealand Bloodstock Ethereal Stakes 2000m.

THEODORA (12) has only had the two race starts but she has charged home at both of them over 1300m and 1600m. She looks well suited getting out to the 2000m and should be able to settle a little closer. Just needs to be ridden for one late run at them.

Dangers:

SMOOTH LANDING (8) is still a maiden but her run in the Flight stakes last time was ok after having no luck at the top of the straight, she may add some value to the exotics. They must have an opinion of her to travel for this? PINOT (6) was super at Flemington, had the soft run and once clear really charged through the line. Looks suited getting out to the 2000m but maps poorly this time in. ONE MORE HONEY (1) also comes through the Sydney form line of the Flight Stakes, was only fair to the lin e after getting a favourable tempo.

Race 4: Ladbrokes Classic 2000m.

There only looks three chances here and see how the track is playing early in the day. If the leaders are dominating then CLIFF’S EDGE (2) looks very hard to beat. He looks better suited around here where he can kick around the bend and get them off the bit chasing on the turn. His two main rivals will be giving him a start, TANGLED (1) who comes here with solid Sydney form and MAIN STAGE (4) who beat Cliff’s Edge last start but has to carry the extra kg. Hard to see one of these three not saluting.

Race 5: Priceline Pharmacy Coongy Cup 2000m.

SAMOVARE (8) was not given much peace in front last time here, she looks better suited back in this grade, her run two starts back here in the Naturalism was full of merit.

Dangers:

KIWIA (10) was not given much chance in the Murtoa Cup, got way too far back but really hit the line well. He has won here previously and should be running on if the tempo is genuine and the top pick doesn’t get its own way in front. WHEAL LEISURE (11) has continued to step up in grade, showed a great turn of foot winning here last time coming with one sweeping run. SPECTROSCOPE (5) comes here with the NSW form, will get back and may need a little luck coming through from the inside draw.

Race 6: Ladbrokes Moonga Stakes 1400m.

Kris Lees really knows how to send one south for a victory, gets the magic Man up aboard DANISH TWIST (11) and should be running on hard. Watch for any confidence in the betting as it has been a while since he has been in the winners’ circle.

Dangers:

ECKSTEIN (10) hit a flat spot at Flemington last time but got going late, both his runs look poor in the form guide this prep but they have been better than that. ULMANN (5) was good in the Gilgai up the straight, this is easier. GRANDE ROSSO (6) has a great record at the distance but was forced to work too hard chasing last time.

Race 7: Harrolds Caulfield Sprint 1000m.

MISSROCK (2) has been inconsistent this time in, her win fresh was superb and I think if she is ridden a lot quieter today from the wide gate she can storm over the top of them with one run. There looks to be a stack of speed so she should be well suited if ridden that way.

Dangers:

SNITTY KITTY (8) was super resuming, never finished further back than second last campaign and her second-up record is good. She has a stack of speed. SUPER TOO (9) will be trying to kick through also to hold the lead, they could really charge early in this. PROPERTY (10) looks to have a stack of potential, he is taking on the older horses here but has trialed well. As always watch the betting with this stable, especially one fresh from the paddock.

Race 8: BMW CAULFIELD CUP.

1. HUMIDOR was convincingly beaten at his last start, but by none other than Winx. This was always going to be his race so even though he was beaten a long way and into third, expect him to be firing for this. We can’t forget his breathtaking win at Flemington two back.
2. MARMELO is an import that has not raced in 8 weeks, was a last start winner over 3000m so can definitely run the trip! May need the run going into Flemington where he is well in the market to win the big one.
3. JOHANNES VERMEER was the talk of the track last week after flying home at his Oz debut in a race where the on pacers dominated. If the speed is on look for him charging late again. Has to be respected from this stable.
4. JON SNOW stuck on well last week but was assisted the way the race was run being up on the speed. Consistent and drawn well, will be in the first couple of pairings early.
5. HE’S OUR ROKKI will start at triple figure odds and hasn’t shown enough this prep. Went around last week in Sydney and was well beaten. No.
6. SIR ISAAC NEWTON was up on the speed when thrashed by Winx last week, back to a handicap he may run a cheeky race up on the speed.
7. VENTURA STORM was officially beaten 6.5 lengths by Winx last start but he had to do a stack of chasing and there is nothing with the acceleration that the great mare showed last week in this race. Back to a handicap he looks to be in ok, has to be included.
8. WICKLOW BRAVE comes here after a 5 week break, last start beaten a long way in the Irish St Leger. Came here for the Melbourne Cup last year and was well beaten. Not here.
9. INFERENCE was ok late last week in a race where the back-markers struggled to get into it. Didn’t run on as well as Johannes Vermeer so hard to see him turning the tables there. Place best.
10. SINGLE GAZE comes through the same lead-up as a few of these last week when sticking on fairly up on the speed. Th race was run to suit so she will need to have improved to win this.
11. BONNEVAL was at the top of the market for this before flopping last week but she did appear in the stewards report in pulling up lame. She ad a stellar start to this campaign and looked unstoppable, willing to forgive last week and she should be running on hard form the back.
12. HARDHAM is a lightly raced four-year-old that has to take huge step up in grade in this. Looks outclassed.
13. BOOM TIME was brave in defeat last week in the Herbert Power. He pulled a little behind the leader in a race where he was the only on-pacer that could see the winner at the finishing post. Draws to get a soft run.
14. ABBEY MARIE was big odds last week in the lead-up, made some ground from the back and that wasn’t easy to do. Place chance.
15. HARLEM was super two back at Flemington but just looked a little one paced last time at Flemington over the 2500m. Looks better suited here back in trip with the soft run off the rails draw.
16. AMELIE’S STAR was breathtaking here last week, she had been crying out for a win after luckless runs at her previous couple. She will be giving them a start but will be flashing late. Hard to beat.
17. LORD FANDANGO continues to step up to the next level, will be mid-field here but once again has to rise in class. Carries no weight, looks a place chance again if ridden for luck.

Numbers: 7-3-13-16.

Race 9: Schweppes Tristarc Stakes 1400m.

Capacity field going around in the Tristarc, tipping that you will get better than each-way odds about the field here at some stage of betting. I would be willing to lay anything that gets under that quote. Those with a chance include NOW OR LATER (8) who was an eye-catching winner last start when charging late, RAVI (10) who was unlucky last time around, MERRIEST (14) who will get back but can run on hard and FOXPLAY (1) who wasn’t far away in the Epsom last start. Play wide in the Quads and Exotics.

Race 10:

NIETA (3) finds a more suitable race than when in Sydney at her past three this campaign, drops in class and maps well. She has not been getting beaten far by some of the best in the state/country there, this looks a stack easier.

Dangers:

FUHRYK (1) has had excuses at her last couple, gets a soft run here and looks the obvious danger to the Sydney visitor. Gets Williams back on and no doubt will be ridden positively early. CONCHITA (6) ran on strongly out wide at the Valley over the shorter trip but she has never placed in 5 tries at this trip. CONCEALER (8) is resuming, has a decent record fresh, look for any money around for her.

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