Round 27 A-League

The view from our man, Tom McDonald:

Match Details: Friday 14th April
7:50pm @ AAMI Park

H2H Betting (Bet365):
Melbourne Victory $1.33
Draw $6.00
Central Coast $10.00

Thoughts: Final round of the regular season gets underway tonight at AAMI Park where there is virtually no incentive for either team to win, which always makes for a difficult betting proposition. Victory will finish second regardless of the result, while even if the Mariners lose they will know the only way they can finish bottom is if Newcastle defeat Sydney, which is even more unlikely then getting a drink in a bar on Good Friday. Central Coast haven’t beaten Victory since 2013, a run of 11 matches. Victory have won 9/10 recent encounters against the Mariners, and have already defeated them 3-0 and 4-1 this season. I know Victory haven’t been scoring lately, failing to find the net in 4/5 previous league games, but their scoring record against the Mariners is super impressive, which is why I’ve gone for this bet. The home side have scored at least two goals in 10/10 previous encounters. With finals looming I’m sure Kevin Muscat’s side will want to put in a better performance then what they have been putting in lately. The Mariners conceded five last time they were away, and have lost 5/7 previous away games. Victory are undefeated at home to the Mariners in 9/9 league games, last losing at home to the Gosford side in 2009. Victory should be winning comfortably and hopefully they score a few for us.

Prediction: Melbourne Victory
Suggested Bet: Melbourne Victory +2.5 total team goals @ $1.80

Match Details: Saturday 15th April
5:35pm @ Allianz Stadium

H2H Betting (Bet365):
Sydney FC $1.22
Draw $6.50
Newcastle Jets $11.00

Thoughts: Don’t think Newcastle are any value here against this Sydney side, even at their $11 h2h quote. Sydney are paying peanuts to win this match and you can see why, having won 7/7 previous encounters with Newcastle. They have not been beaten by the away side since 2012, a run of 13 matches. The Sky Blues have kept clean sheets in all five previous meetings. They have actually kept clean sheets in 10/12 of the most recent meetings, which is a remarkable statistic. The fact that Sydney have almost been impenetrable at home this season only adds more weight to this bet I’ve chosen. Graham Arnold’s side have only conceded four goals in 12 home games, and have kept home clean sheets in 4/6 previous league games. They have conceded just one goal in five matches. Meanwhile, Newcastle look destined to finish bottom unless they can pull off a miracle here. However, they have lost 6/6 recent away games, conceded a ton of goals and failed to score in four of those. As a result I see this as the bet of the round, everything points to it and at a decent price hopefully Sydney maintain their form for one last regular season game.

Prediction: Sydney
Suggested Bet: Sydney clean sheet $2.25
Value Bet: Sydney to win to nil @ $2.40

Match Details: Saturday 15th April
7:50pm @ Coopers Stadium

H2H Betting (Bet365):
Adelaide United $2.75
Draw $3.75
Western Sydney $2.38

Thoughts: Western Sydney have chosen to rest a number of players for this match which could alter the balance in Adelaide’s favor. Jack Clisby, Jumpei Kusukami, Jonathan Aspro and Lachlan Scott are all out, while the Reds have named a strong squad with only Tarek Elrich missing. As a result Adelaide have come in to $2.75 in the H2H markets from an opening quote of $3.00. The Reds did have to travel midweek for the Asian Champions League while the Wanderers stayed at home, which is the only concern I have with backing the home side outright. Given that 4/6 previous encounters have been draws, can see this going the same way. A draw would suit both teams – maybe Adelaide more so than the Wanderers, but there’s no way Tony Popovic’s side can miss out on finals so I don’t see them going all out for the win themselves. The Reds have picked up seven points in their last three home outings, so are in decent form here and will want to finish a poor season on a high – fiercely determined to avoid the worst season by a defending champion since Newcastle’s bottom placed finish in 2008/09. That’s why I can’t see them losing here.

Prediction: Draw
Suggested Bet: Adelaide win/draw double chance @ $1.65
Long Shot: Draw @ $3.75

Match Details: Sunday 16th April
5:00pm @ Suncorp Stadium

H2H Betting (Bet365):
Brisbane Roar $1.57
Draw $4.33
Wellington Phoenix $5.50

Thoughts: Wellington can no longer play finals this season after last week’s gallant draw to Sydney. Phoenix really needed the three points in that game but it just wasn’t to be, and so another season of disappointment goes by for the New Zealand side. They did win here 2-1 back in round 21 – after Brisbane had played midweek Asian Champions League, and the same scenario again presents itself. However, now that Wellington really have nothing but pride to play for, I think Brisbane can turn the tables and get a result which will catapult them into third and place pressure on Perth and Melbourne City, who play afterwards. Prior to their defeat to Phoenix earlier this season, which was just their third home loss in the league at home under John Aloisi, Brisbane had won 5/6 previous meetings at this venue. Roar have won their last three matches in all competitions here. This fixture has a habit of going over 2.5 goals, which has collected in 9/11 previous encounters, but interestingly only 2/18 previous meetings have gone over 3.5. Given that both the Broncos and Reds play at Suncorp before the Roar on Sunday, I’m predicting the pitch to be in a scrappy state which will impacting the goal-scoring potential of both teams. Hence why I think this bet is the way to go, at a price that’s fairly decent compared to some others.

Prediction: Brisbane Roar
Suggested Bet: Under 3.5 goals @ $1.75

Match Details: Sunday 16th April
7:00pm @ NiB Stadium

H2H Betting (Bet365):
Perth Glory $2.30
Draw $3.75
Melbourne City $2.88

Thoughts: Easily the game of the round with the most riding on it in terms of the finishing position of both teams. Depending on the result in Brisbane, Perth may need to score plenty and win by a big margin to finish third, while City may only need a draw to stay their. There have been a truckload of goals in this fixture recently, with 6/7 previous meetings going over 3.5 goals. Both teams have scored in 8/10 previous encounters. Neither team has been able to get the upper hand, with both recording two victories and two draws in the past six meetings. Interestingly though Perth have only ever lost once to City at this venue, undefeated in 9/10 encounters here. City’s only win in Western Australia came all the way back in 2011. Perth have won six of those games since then. Unfortunately the price for overs isn’t adequate, so am looking toward the H2H market, where I rate the price on offer for the home side. City’s away form has been pretty dreadful, with just two wins in 11 matches, and five losses in seven. Compare that to Perth, who have won five out of seven at home, and I think the price is quite inflated for Kenny Lowe’s men. A win would move them into fourth and possibly give them a home final.

Prediction: Perth Glory
Suggested Bet: Perth Glory to win @ $2.35

One for the multiples: Melbourne Victory/Sydney/Perth to win @ $3.80

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