Morphettville

Best Bets Race 6 no 6 Viddora
Race 8 no 2 Benz
Best Value Race 7 no 10 Domesticated

Morphettville – Saturday, 22 April 2017
Track: Good. Weather: Overcast (Partly Cloudy – 27°C). Rail: +10m 1200m-W/P, +5m Remainder. Sectional 613m
Assessed for: –

Race 1 – Schweppes Oaks 6th May Handicap – Open – 1050 – 12:28
Top Pick: It’s a Myth (8)
Danger: Spiritual Girl (2)
Trifecta: Mintha (10)
Multi: Lead Foot Lacey (9), Tabbing (1), Jolie Rose (7), Outboard Motors (11)

Tip Comment: Its a Myth($6.5) comes into this off a 7 week freshen-up. Had absolutely no luck whatsoever when still far from disgraced in much tougher Stakes races last start. Has since been given a very easy trial when still strong to the line-big improver! Spiritual Girl($3.7) promising type that tasted defeat for the first time when admittedly had every chance last start. Obviously very hard to beat given just slight improvement. Mintha($5.5) debutant that has indicated ability at the trial-big watch!

Race Comment: Good pace here with Tabbing, Spiritual Girl & Jolie Rose all possessing plenty of natural early toe. Despite the uncertainties of the debuts still real keen to get involved with Its a Myth…does appear underestimated early on at opening prices.

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Race 2 – ATA Celebrates 50 Years Handicap (Heat 10 SA Sprint Series) – BenchMark 70 – 1100 – 01:03
Top Pick: Alaskan Jade (7)
Danger: Rock Status (4)
Trifecta: Streetcar Illusion (5)
Multi: Aurelius Hero (1), Sandrelli (17), Trueno (20), Galaxy Gazer (2)

Tip Comment: Alaskan Jade($8.5) despite having missed the placings, suggest this mares past two efforts have been close to her two best efforts, really charging hard late on each occasion. Certainly better suited stepping up to the 1100m on the bigger track here. Rock Status($4.6) came with his usual whirlwind 1st-up finish to get up & score big win last start. Previous 2nd-up form however the query here? Streetcar Illusion($9) hasn’t been far away however just cant crack it for another win-still respecting!

Race Comment: Strong tempo with Downs After Dark, Mr Liberty, Petrov & Idatwo those likely to be driving hard early. Obviously gone looking for backmarkers with Alaskan Jade appealing at the early generous odds. Also some good value amongst other top selections.

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Race 3 – Darley Goodwood 20th May Handicap – BenchMark 82 – 1200 – 01:38
Top Pick: Schism (7)
Danger: Counter Pulse (1)
Roughie: Double Pockets (10)
Multi: Light It Up (2), Tildy Lad (8), Hidden Value (4), Spreadeagled (3)

Tip Comment: Schism($3.9) was beaten in a real head-bobber by Counter Pulse last start. Is however much more favourably drawn here & is expected to lead holding the fence. Counter Pulse($3.7) as mentioned beat Schism last start & does meet that galloper 1.5kg better at weights after claim. Does however lose the experience of Lindop…still must rate a big danger! Double Pockets($23) & Light It Up($23) rate as genuine e/way chances at big odds (both runners expected to be ideally suited by strong tempo!).

Race Comment: Strong pressure with Schism, Counter Pulse, Pepper the Pin & Chauvuma all expected to drive hard early. Open race with our top two selections appearing well found early.Would much prefer to speck both Double Pockets & Light It Up at current big odds.

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Race 4 – Suzie Reynolds Handicap – Open – 1200 – 02:13
Top Pick: Tycoon Queen (4)
Danger: Model Dragon (7)
Value: Scratchy Lass (2)
Multi: Beautiful Flyer (5), Sullivan Bay (3), Sahara Chill (6), New Summer Night (8)

Tip Comment: Tycoon Queen($6.5) reckon there has been a lot to like about this mares most recent efforts including last start when had no luck whatsoever when badly held up. Again gets in great down on the min however this time gets big positive rider change! Model Dragon($4.2) promising, lightly raced mare(won 4/6!). Demonstrated her class when disposing of her rivals effortlessly last start-this tougher! Scratchy Lass($17) can improve sharply dropping in grade…at good odds!

Race Comment: Solid tempo with Sullivan Bay, Tempting Faith, Joy Flipper & Tunisia Traveller all capable of driving hard. Expect this to suit both Tycoon Queen & Model Dragon ideally. Dutching both runners for a handy result whilst also specking Scratchy Lass.

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Race 5 – UBET SA Derby 13th May Handicap – Open – 1800 – 02:53
Top Pick: Evangelist (6)
Danger: Royal Rumble (3)
Value: Excites Zelady (2)
Multi: It And a Bit (4), Flow Meter (7), Dr Dapper (5), Dances On Stars (1)

Tip Comment: Evangelist($5) has a terrible habit of bombing the start however both runs since joining new in-form Stable must be said have been enormous. Really does look to be the ideal race for him (rise in trip/no weight)…just needs to jump! Royal Rumble($3.8) has again come back enormous & was finally rewarded for consistency when simply too strong last start-big danger! Excites Zelady($12) this blokes last start run was simply too bad to be true. Rarely far away in his races-likely big improver!

Race Comment: Not too much obvious pressure with Excites Zelady, Dr Dapper & Spiritof Endeavour those expected to roll forward. Despite this still rolling the dice with Evangelist e/way(flying for new Stable!). Excites Zelady rates as clear best value runner.

Betting Confidence:

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Race 6 – Hughes Chauffeured Limousines R N Irwin Stakes – Open – 1100 – 03:33
Top Pick: Viddora (6)
Danger: Petits Filous (7)
Trifecta: Casino Wizard (2)
Multi: Illustrious Lad (1), Lope de Capio (4), Sooboog (3), I Am Gypsy (8)

Tip Comment: Viddora($4.6) smart mare certainly deserving of a change of fortunes coming into this off the back of three big runner-up efforts, including huge 1st-up run when a certainty beaten. Smaller field suits & gets big positive rider change. Petits Filous($4.6) likely leader that just peaked on run when swamped 1st-up. Surely only strips fitter for this & certainly not as much early pressure engaged here-will give a big sight! Casino Wizard($10) & Illustrious Lad($3.1) also both genuine e/way chances.

Race Comment: Tempo genuine with Petits Filous, I Am Gypsy, Sooboog & Atmospherical those expected to go forward. Must be said we are real keen here on Viddora with the opening $4.60 appearing most generous…best bet-betting up! Casino Wizard also good value.

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Race 7 – Schweppervescence Stakes (Registered as Auraria Stakes) – Open – 1800 – 04:13
Top Pick: Domesticated (10)
Danger: Kenedna (1)
Each-way: Pretty Punk (2)
Multi: Sebring Dream (6), With a Bit of Dash (9), Toffee Nose (12), Savvy Dreams (5)

Tip Comment: Domesticated($26) comes into this off a real eyecatcher when rattled home late to fill the placings in Pt Adel Guineas. Certainly likely to have benefitted for having now had a look at the track…has opened enormous value!! Kenedna($4) promising filly that beat a very similar line-up to this last start. Was however assisted by a gem of a ride-will need another good ride from the barrier. (Pretty Punk($8) has simply been conceding impossible breaks in her races. Peaks her-rise to 1800m suits!

Race Comment: Strong tempo with Tiffanys Lass, Peninsula Links, Im A Princess & Mrs Gardenia those likely to be most prominent early. Simply stunned at the price of Domesticated…must have a strong e/way crack at that price! Also having something on Pretty Punk.

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Race 8 – Projection Graphics Redelva Stakes – Open – 1100 – 04:52
Top Pick: Benz (2)
Danger: El Divino (1)
Roughie: Arleigh (13)
Multi: Arizona Wildcat (12), Invisible Girl (14), So You Too (6), Motown Lil (11)

Tip Comment: Benz($7.5) comes into this off a slashing/strong 1st-up win when disposing of some quality G3 performers (Derryn has since franked form big time). Is 2/2 previously 2nd-up & returns to his home track! El Divino($4.4) comes into this off 8 week freshen-up. Simply wont know himself dropping back from a G1 Oakleigh Plate. Narrowly beaten by Tivaci three starts back…that simply reads huge for this! Including Arleigh($34), Arizona Wildcat($26) & Invisible Girl($17) that have all opened big value!

Race Comment: Solid tempo with Desert Lashes, Balancing Act, El Divino & Arizona Wildcat those expected to be most prominent early. Pretty keen here on Benz…does look a great e/way bet! Also plenty of value to be found amongst our other top rated selections.

Betting Confidence:

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