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2.5 Goal Strategy Update

by footballformlabs on August 11, 2012

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Sunday August 12

Summer Football Analysis: Sweden
Elfsborg v Malmo
Sunday August 12th 16:30

First plays second in this Swedish Allsvenskan title decider. Elfsborg are still top, but have taken just five points from five games, allowing Malmo to draw level on goal difference.

Home advantage could be crucial here as Elfsborg are unbeaten at home this season, keeping clean sheets in the last five. Furthermore, Elfsborg have lost just four of 68 home games since 2008 whilst winning 75% of those matches. This includes winning 65% of their 26 games hosting top-six sides.

Malmo have won their last two away games, but those were against bottom three sides. In addition, they’ve lost 7/12 trips to top six teams since 2010, and have not won at Elfsborg in any of the previous five years.

Elfsborg’s recent form has not been too great but the leaders are impossible to oppose at home and are a great price at 2.4.

Furthermore, having won five of their last 12 home games against top-six teams by at least two goals the -1.5 handicap is worth a small interest at 4.5 with Bet365.

Both teams have had a slight bias towards over 2.5 goals matches this season (9/17 +2.5 goals for Elfsborg and 10/18 for Malmo). Top six v top six clashes have gone over 2.5 goals in 53% of games since 2007 and with the best +2.5 goal odds being 2.06 with SBO, there is some value here.

However, neither team have conceded in their past two games as they approach this potential title decider and given the importance of this match we’ll stick to smaller stakes in the over/under markets.

Top six v top six in the Allsvenskan has been remarkably good for the home team since 2007. The home team has won 56% of the time, for a profit of 28.2 points from 142 instances. 39% of these games saw a clean sheet for the home team, with 7/10 recent clashes being won to nil. Elfsborg have won half their home games ‘To Nil’ this season and have kept a clean sheet in half their home games hosting top six sides since 2007. Malmo have kept a clean sheet in just three of their last 20 away games and in just 4/25 games away to top six sides since 2007.

Backing Elfsborg to ‘Win To Nil’ could be a good hedge for any under 2.5 goal bets, as this would cover 1-0 and 2-0 nicely. At best odds of 4.2 with Paddy Power, this may be worth an additional small stakes bet.

Summer Football Round up:

Ireland: All nine of Bray’s home matches this season have had +2.5 goals as have 7/9 of Dundalk’s away fixtures.
Ireland: There have been -2.5 goals in 8/12 Bohemians away matches.
Ireland: There have been -2.5 goals in 8/11 Shamrock R home matches against top-half teams.
USA: NY Red Bulls have had W/W double results in 6/10 home matches against top-six teams.
USA: There have been +2.5 goals in 7/9 Vancouver home matches against top-six teams.
Norway: Tromso have had W/W double results in 12/20 home matches while Stromsgodset have lost the first half in 12/16 away matches against.

Until next week……

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